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January 12, 2004 - Strategy Media Archive
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Market Meter: Special edition: Outlook 2004

by Patti Summerfield
page M 10

To mark the advent of a new year, this issue's meter looks at activity for the next 12 months. In 2004, newspapers and conventional broadcasters can expect some battles from agencies and clients over what many consider to be outlandish rate hikes.

Specialty TV really came into its own in 2003 and is now considered part of the upfront buy rather than an afterthought. Expect more migration to specialties in 2004, as advertisers cut back on conventional, and look toward media willing to work with them.

Radio and out-of-home should also benefit from advertiser desire to find new ways to reach time-strapped consumers and do so efficiently and effectively.

Conventional broadcast TV

4 out of 5

The year ahead is not expected to be as bullish for conventional broadcasters as 2003. Client budgets are staying the same or growing marginally and buyers are fed up with broadcasters raising rates when audiences aren't keeping pace.

Helena Shelton, VP broadcast operations for MBS/The Media Company, expects advertisers to hold back more than usual in 2004 in an effort to see how the schedules shape up before plunging in.

The 2003 fall season was a big disappointment to agencies. Although every year buyers expect about half of all the new shows to fail, Global had a larger number of cancellations than usual.

It all boils down to programming, says Shelton, "CTV has done very well. They've got the programming. They're having a gangbuster year - and their audience estimates are accurate - and CanWest Global isn't."

Jack Tomik, SVP of CanWest Media Sales, says cancellations for CanWest for the 2003 season really weren't much different than in previous years. He says because buyers are dealing with one sales organization, it's easy to forget that it essentially sells two complete program schedules - the Global network and the CH stations in Hamilton, Vancouver Island, and Montreal.

And because both schedules were wrought with new shows, Tomik says it makes sense that there would be more show cancellations for CanWest.

Moving into 2004, Florence Ng, VP of broadcast at ZenithOptimedia, says she is seeing a little more flexibility in negotiations with stations. But to get consistency of audience delivery, she says, buyers are sticking to the tried-and-true existing shows and basing buys on their own audience estimates, not the stations' estimates.

Specialty TV

4 out of 5

Specialty viewing is building as conventional declines. Specialty's share of advertising budgets will continue to follow suit in 2004.

While rising conventional rates and static budgets are driving advertisers to specialty, viewers are drawn to the channels focusing on their special interests.

Carol Cummings, senior TV buyer at Montreal-based Media Experts, says advertisers need to find alternate media vehicles because the cost of conventional is proving to be prohibitive, however, advertisers are still anxious about abandoning the mass reach of conventional TV. She expects some day to make a specialty-only buy and get exceptional results.

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