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June 14, 2004 - Strategy Media Archive
Fall TV Preview

The National View
A more civilized affair
With average increases pegged at 3% to 5%, buyers are launching into the upfront expecting a little less hype

by Brendan Christie
page M 6

Barring nuclear exchanges, this year's upfront has to be a quieter affair than the last. But that's not to say that all is status quo. While things might seem quiet on the Southern Upfront, much like that proverbial duck that bobs nonchalantly on the surface while it works its feet like mad below, the relative calm belies a storm of activity. Buyers say broadcasting is undergoing a quantum leap, and it's time to adapt.

In the U.S., the upfront has been chugging along at mid-to-high single-digit increases, with only UPN pulling in double digits thanks to hits like American's Next Top Model. Most media outlets predict the total network upfront will sit just above the US$9 billion mark, as it has for the last few years. And as predicted, cable is faring well. An estimated one billion dollars has emigrated, bringing that particular medium up 15% and above the US$6 billion mark.

In Canada, things are similarly less frenzied on network. The common consensus among buyers is that this year's rate increases will fall somewhere within the 3% to 5% mark, with nets coming to the table with 9% to 15% mark-ups on some hit properties. That's far from the proposed 25% and 30% increases for those titles that shocked so many last year. But this year the hype seems to be missing from the equation and buyers predict that overall spending will be flat at around the $2.5 billion mark that has been the norm of late, with the slower cable migration in Canada compensated by slightly larger client investments.

But buyers, like elephants, have long memories. Asked if there were lingering bad feelings over last year, one noted: "Oh, absolutely. I think if people have an opportunity to screw with Global, they will.... Global has to be careful. But a broadcaster can make things up in a big hurry if they seem a little more human, a little more understanding and they are a little more flexible."

Ken Johnson, SVP television sales division at CanWest Global, concedes that the broadcaster came out with aggressive rates last fall but says rates have been competitive since January and will continue to be competitive this fall.

And, to be fair, it was hardly just Global with its hand in the cookie jar. Notes Val McMorran, Initiative Media's broadcast director in Toronto, "I found everybody aggressive last year, including some of the major owner groups of specialty. I think the whole medium was getting caught up in the frenzy being fed from the U.S. upfront. Everybody jumped on the bandwagon thinking it was going to be a banner year. Practically every broadcaster group that came through our doors was in the double digits, but not necessarily with any rationale or justification."

The year that was

While by mid-season last year Global looked like it was in trouble due to much of its schedule going AWOL, a look back on the entire year tells another story. While CTV came out on top in many categories, Global dominated the top 10 in the 18-to-34 demo with stronger showings for its two Survivor franchises, a parting surge for Friends (up to 18.4 AA from 11.4) and the additions of The Apprentice and still-surprise hit My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiancé. CTV countered with stronger C.S.I. showings (the main show jumped to 11.4 AA from 8.1, and Miami jumped to 11.0 from 6.7), as well as predictably solid showings from mainstays like American Idol, ER, Third Watch and additions like The Simple Life. For its part, the CBC showed big gains for hockey, while CHUM had no hits in the top 20 in the demo.

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